Forecast as of 4 Nov 2026 · updated 4 Nov 2026, 9:17 AM ET
Six Nations 2027 forecast
Chances for every team in the Men's Six Nations Championship 2027 (5 Feb–13 Mar 2027): six teams, each playing the other five once. Each number comes from simulating the whole championship 100,000 times. Before the championship: no matches played yet. Just for fun, not betting advice.
Title chances
- Ireland37.3%
- France30.1%
- England21.9%
- Scotland10.4%
- Italy0.1%
- Wales0.1%
Some team wins a Grand Slam (all five matches) in 37.7% of simulations.
Title, Grand Slam, Triple Crown and wooden spoon
Grand Slam = winning all five matches. Triple Crown = a Home Union (England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales) beating the other three; France and Italy are not eligible. Wooden spoon = finishing sixth. Expected points include bonus points and the 3-point Grand Slam bonus.
| Team | Title | Grand Slam | Triple Crown | Wooden spoon | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 37.3% | 16.9% | 32.0% | 0.4% | 16.7 |
| France | 30.1% | 11.0% | n/a | 0.3% | 16.0 |
| England | 21.9% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 0.7% | 14.9 |
| Scotland | 10.4% | 2.5% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 12.9 |
| Italy | 0.1% | <0.1% | n/a | 43.5% | 5.1 |
| Wales | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 53.8% | 4.6 |
Finishing position
Chance of finishing in each place. Each row and each column adds up to 100%.
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 37.3% | 27.2% | 19.7% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| France | 30.1% | 28.7% | 24.0% | 14.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| England | 21.9% | 26.1% | 26.6% | 20.7% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Scotland | 10.4% | 16.9% | 25.8% | 37.6% | 7.9% | 1.4% |
| Italy | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 7.6% | 46.1% | 43.5% |
| Wales | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 6.7% | 37.1% | 53.8% |
All 15 matches
Home team first. Win, draw and loss chances and expected winning margin (points), in date order. Kick-off times are US Eastern (ET), converted from the official GMT times; they may change for broadcast.
| Date | Kick-off (ET) | Round | Home | Home win | Draw | Away win | Away | Expected margin | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb | 3:10 PM | 1 | Ireland | 68.8% | 2.4% | 28.9% | England | Ireland by 7.8 | Aviva Stadium |
| 6 Feb | 9:10 AM | 1 | Scotland | 89.5% | 1.2% | 9.4% | Italy | Scotland by 19.1 | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 6 Feb | 11:40 AM | 1 | France | 94.9% | 0.7% | 4.4% | Wales | France by 24.8 | Stade de France |
| 13 Feb | 9:10 AM | 2 | Italy | 12.1% | 1.4% | 86.5% | Ireland | Ireland by 16.9 | Stadio Olimpico |
| 13 Feb | 11:40 AM | 2 | Scotland | 88.7% | 1.2% | 10.0% | Wales | Scotland by 18.4 | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 14 Feb | 10:10 AM | 2 | England | 50.7% | 2.7% | 46.6% | France | England by 0.7 | Allianz Stadium |
| 20 Feb | 9:10 AM | 3 | Wales | 12.9% | 1.4% | 85.7% | Ireland | Ireland by 16.2 | Principality Stadium |
| 20 Feb | 11:40 AM | 3 | England | 92.6% | 0.9% | 6.5% | Italy | England by 22.0 | Allianz Stadium |
| 21 Feb | 10:10 AM | 3 | France | 75.6% | 2.1% | 22.3% | Scotland | France by 10.8 | Stade de France |
| 5 Mar | 3:10 PM | 4 | Scotland | 43.0% | 2.7% | 54.3% | Ireland | Ireland by 2.1 | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 6 Mar | 9:10 AM | 4 | Italy | 12.0% | 1.4% | 86.6% | France | France by 17.0 | Stadio Olimpico |
| 6 Mar | 11:40 AM | 4 | Wales | 18.9% | 1.9% | 79.3% | England | England by 12.7 | Principality Stadium |
| 13 Mar | 9:10 AM | 5 | Italy | 58.3% | 2.6% | 39.1% | Wales | Italy by 3.7 | Stadio Olimpico |
| 13 Mar | 11:40 AM | 5 | England | 67.4% | 2.3% | 30.3% | Scotland | England by 7.2 | Allianz Stadium |
| 13 Mar | 3:10 PM | 5 | Ireland | 59.9% | 2.5% | 37.5% | France | Ireland by 4.3 | Aviva Stadium |
How the betting market sees it
Benchmark only: OLBG ‘Win Tournament’ odds table, quoted 4 Nov 2026, 9:10 AM ET. Decimal odds converted to probabilities and normalised over the six teams (raw sum 107.5%). Comparison only: odds are never used as model inputs.
| Team | Model | Decimal odds | Implied (benchmark) | Model minus market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 37.3% | 3.75 | 24.8% | +12.5 pts |
| France | 30.1% | 2.38 | 39.1% | -8.9 pts |
| England | 21.9% | 4 | 23.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Scotland | 10.4% | 8.5 | 10.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Italy | 0.1% | 91 | 1.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Wales | 0.1% | 101 | 0.9% | -0.8 pts |
Track record
Before publishing, the same model was run as of the eve of every Six Nations from 2019 to 2026, using only results and rankings available before each opening match, with parameters fixed in advance on pre-2019 data. Across 120 matches the blend had the lowest log loss (0.516, vs 0.520 for rankings alone, 0.531 for our ratings alone and 0.563 for World Rugby’s simple formula), so it is the published version. It did not win everything: it beat the World Rugby formula on matches in 6 of 8 years and on picking the champion in only 4 of 8, and in the three years with usable bookmaker odds (2020, 2021, 2024) the bookmakers scored slightly better on the champion by log loss, though the model did better by Brier score.
| Championship (champion) | Match log loss: model | Our ratings | WR rankings | WR formula | Champion: model | Our ratings | WR rankings | WR formula | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 (Wales) | 0.427 | 0.445 | 0.436 | 0.455 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 23.4% | 21.8% | not found |
| 2020 (England) | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.536 | 0.594 | 61.1% | 62.3% | 55.4% | 80.4% | 50.4% |
| 2021 (Wales) | 0.682 | 0.646 | 0.700 | 0.922 | 3.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 6.8% |
| 2022 (France) | 0.615 | 0.667 | 0.576 | 0.679 | 19.3% | 16.5% | 21.6% | 14.9% | not found |
| 2023 (Ireland) | 0.326 | 0.383 | 0.334 | 0.268 | 55.1% | 48.4% | 51.7% | 75.8% | partial |
| 2024 (Ireland) | 0.656 | 0.728 | 0.604 | 0.683 | 54.8% | 54.0% | 52.2% | 68.8% | 35.0% |
| 2025 (France) | 0.345 | 0.376 | 0.361 | 0.294 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 28.3% | 15.5% | not found |
| 2026 (France) | 0.564 | 0.520 | 0.610 | 0.614 | 33.9% | 36.8% | 29.3% | 25.4% | not found |
| Mean / all years | 0.516 | 0.531 | 0.520 | 0.563 | |||||
Lower log loss is better. “Champion” columns show the chance each forecast gave the eventual champion beforehand. Model figures are green when they beat the World Rugby formula that year and red when they lost to it.
Bookmaker years only (2020, 2021, 2024): champion log loss bookmakers 1.473 vs model 1.497 (model loses); champion Brier bookmakers 0.117 vs model 0.105 (model wins). Three years is too few to call either way.
Calibration (all years pooled)
Matches grouped by the chance given to the favourite. Well calibrated means “predicted” and “won” are close.
| Favourite’s chance | Model: matches | Predicted | Won | WR formula: matches | Predicted | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 26 | 55.4% | 61.5% | 22 | 55.9% | 54.5% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 65.3% | 56.2% | 11 | 63.4% | 63.6% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 74.7% | 60.9% | 15 | 73.3% | 46.7% |
| 80–90% | 27 | 84.8% | 87.0% | 24 | 85.4% | 68.8% |
| 90–100% | 28 | 94.8% | 94.6% | 48 | 98.2% | 92.7% |
Method
Team strength blends two estimates with equal weight: our own ratings, built from every men's international since 2000 (recent matches count more, and teams with few matches are pulled toward average), and World Rugby's official ranking points converted to an expected margin. The home team gets a Six Nations home advantage of 4.3 points, estimated from 2004–2018 Six Nations matches. Match margins and tries are simulated with random variation, then the table is settled with the official rules: 4 points for a win, 2 for a draw, a try bonus point for 4 or more tries, a losing bonus point for losing by 7 or fewer, and 3 extra points for a Grand Slam. Ties are split by points difference, then tries scored. Results are through 31 Oct 2026; World Rugby rankings as published when queried on 4 Nov 2026. Inputs are official World Rugby and Six Nations Rugby data only. Model settings were fixed on pre-2019 data before any backtest was scored (parameters e42afbf5…).
- Kick-off times as published on 4 Nov 2026; they may change for broadcast.
- Not modelled: squad selection, injuries, travel, and the November 2026 Tests still to be played (the forecast will move after them).
- Exact ties on points, points difference and tries are ‘placed equally’ under the rules; the model shares such places at random (rare).
- Bookmaker odds from before the opener were not found for 2019, 2022, 2025 and 2026; 2023 has only the top three prices, so it is not scored.
- 2020 (four matches postponed to October by COVID) and 2021 (no crowds) are scored like any other year; home advantage was kept for 2021.
- Some older World Rugby stats records omit try counts; a missing count is read as zero only when the score could be made without a try.
- Pre-2020 ranking snapshot dates (World Rugby API ‘effective’ label unreliable).