Forecast as of 3 Nov 2026 · updated 3 Nov 2026, 3:20 PM ET

Rugby World Cup 2027 forecast

Chances for every team at the Men's Rugby World Cup in Australia (1 Oct–13 Nov 2027): 24 teams in six pools of four; the top two in each pool and the four best third-placed teams reach the round of 16. Each number comes from simulating the whole tournament 100,000 times. Before the tournament: no matches played yet.

South Africa32.7%chance to win

New Zealand29.9%chance to win

Ireland13.1%chance to win

France7.9%chance to win

Title chances

South Africa32.7%
New Zealand29.9%
Ireland13.1%
France7.9%
Australia7.0%
England5.4%
Scotland2.6%
Argentina1.4%
Fiji<0.1%
Wales<0.1%

How far each team goes

Chance of reaching each stage (exiting in the pools for the first column).

Team	Pool	Out in pools	Round of 16	Quarter-final	Semi-final	Final	Win
South Africa	B	<0.1%	>99.9%	99.5%	57.7%	45.0%	32.7%
New Zealand	A	<0.1%	>99.9%	99.2%	55.8%	43.0%	29.9%
Ireland	D	<0.1%	>99.9%	83.0%	67.0%	33.4%	13.1%
France	E	<0.1%	>99.9%	60.6%	51.6%	15.4%	7.9%
Australia	A	<0.1%	>99.9%	93.3%	46.5%	24.4%	7.0%
England	F	<0.1%	>99.9%	90.3%	40.4%	19.6%	5.4%
Scotland	D	<0.1%	>99.9%	53.3%	37.0%	10.1%	2.6%
Argentina	C	<0.1%	>99.9%	92.4%	29.4%	8.1%	1.4%
Fiji	C	0.3%	99.7%	54.5%	6.2%	0.4%	<0.1%
Wales	F	0.1%	99.9%	47.6%	5.2%	0.3%	<0.1%
Italy	B	2.9%	97.1%	12.3%	1.6%	0.2%	<0.1%
Japan	E	3.1%	96.9%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%
Georgia	B	9.5%	90.5%	5.3%	0.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Tonga	F	40.1%	59.9%	0.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Chile	A	62.3%	37.7%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Spain	C	44.2%	55.8%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Samoa	E	58.5%	41.5%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
USA	E	65.8%	34.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Portugal	D	62.6%	37.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Uruguay	D	82.9%	17.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Canada	C	84.8%	15.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Hong Kong China	A	94.3%	5.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Zimbabwe	F	92.0%	8.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Romania	B	96.7%	3.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%

Pools

Chance of each finishing position, and of reaching the round of 16.

Pool A

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16
New Zealand	77.3%	22.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Australia	22.7%	77.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Chile	<0.1%	0.1%	78.9%	21.0%	37.7%
Hong Kong China	<0.1%	<0.1%	21.0%	79.0%	5.7%

Pool B

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16
South Africa	98.5%	1.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Italy	1.2%	63.2%	34.3%	1.3%	97.1%
Georgia	0.3%	34.9%	60.4%	4.3%	90.5%
Romania	<0.1%	0.4%	5.2%	94.3%	3.3%

Pool C

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16
Argentina	78.5%	21.2%	0.3%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Fiji	21.4%	73.8%	4.6%	0.2%	99.7%
Spain	0.1%	4.3%	69.0%	26.5%	55.8%
Canada	<0.1%	0.6%	26.1%	73.3%	15.2%

Pool D

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16
Ireland	68.4%	31.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Scotland	31.6%	67.4%	1.0%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Portugal	<0.1%	0.9%	62.6%	36.4%	37.4%
Uruguay	<0.1%	0.2%	36.2%	63.5%	17.1%

Pool E

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16
France	95.6%	4.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Japan	4.4%	80.5%	12.8%	2.4%	96.9%
Samoa	<0.1%	8.5%	46.7%	44.8%	41.5%
USA	<0.1%	6.6%	40.6%	52.8%	34.2%

Pool F

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	R16
England	88.5%	11.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	>99.9%
Wales	11.5%	84.6%	3.9%	0.1%	99.9%
Tonga	<0.1%	3.8%	78.2%	18.1%	59.9%
Zimbabwe	<0.1%	0.2%	17.9%	81.9%	8.0%

Knockout bracket

For each knockout match, the three most likely pairings.

Round of 16

R1Pool C runner-up v Pool F runner-up

Fiji v Wales62.5%
Argentina v Wales17.9%
Fiji v England8.5%

R2Pool A winner v Best third (C/E/F)

New Zealand v Spain39.6%
Australia v Spain11.8%
New Zealand v Canada11.3%

R3Pool E winner v Pool D runner-up

France v Scotland64.4%
France v Ireland30.0%
Japan v Scotland2.9%

R4Pool B winner v Best third (D/E/F)

South Africa v Portugal36.0%
South Africa v Uruguay16.6%
South Africa v Samoa13.8%

R5Pool C winner v Best third (A/E/F)

Argentina v Chile29.5%
Argentina v Tonga26.5%
Fiji v Chile8.0%

R6Pool D winner v Best third (B/E/F)

Ireland v Georgia37.8%
Ireland v Italy22.4%
Scotland v Georgia17.5%

R7Pool A runner-up v Pool E runner-up

Australia v Japan62.1%
New Zealand v Japan18.3%
Australia v Samoa6.6%

R8Pool F winner v Pool B runner-up

England v Italy55.9%
England v Georgia30.9%
Wales v Italy7.3%

Quarter-finals

QF1R2 v R4

New Zealand v South Africa75.8%
Australia v South Africa22.0%
New Zealand v Italy0.8%

QF2R1 v R3

Wales v France23.3%
Fiji v France20.2%
Wales v Scotland9.8%

QF3R5 v R6

Argentina v Ireland50.9%
Argentina v Scotland22.3%
Fiji v Ireland13.2%

QF4R7 v R8

Australia v England57.0%
New Zealand v England17.8%
Australia v Italy6.2%

Semi-finals

SF1QF1 v QF2

South Africa v France28.6%
New Zealand v France19.0%
South Africa v Scotland10.4%

SF2QF3 v QF4

Ireland v Australia21.7%
Ireland v England18.9%
Argentina v Australia10.4%

Final

FinalSF1 v SF2

South Africa v Ireland12.6%
New Zealand v Ireland9.4%
South Africa v Australia8.8%

Pool matches

Win chances and expected winning margin (points) for all 36 pool matches.

Show

Date	Pool	Team A	A wins	Draw	B wins	Team B	Expected margin	Venue
1 Oct 2027	A	Australia	>99.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%	Hong Kong China	Australia by 55	Perth Stadium, Perth
2 Oct 2027	F	Wales	99.4%	0.1%	0.5%	Zimbabwe	Wales by 38	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
2 Oct 2027	A	New Zealand	>99.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%	Chile	New Zealand by 54	Perth Stadium, Perth
2 Oct 2027	E	France	99.8%	<0.1%	0.2%	USA	France by 43	Docklands Stadium, Melbourne
2 Oct 2027	F	England	99.7%	0.1%	0.2%	Tonga	England by 42	Brisbane Stadium, Brisbane
3 Oct 2027	E	Japan	86.9%	1.3%	11.8%	Samoa	Japan by 17	Newcastle Stadium, Newcastle
3 Oct 2027	B	South Africa	98.2%	0.3%	1.5%	Italy	South Africa by 32	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
3 Oct 2027	D	Scotland	99.3%	0.1%	0.5%	Uruguay	Scotland by 38	Docklands Stadium, Melbourne
3 Oct 2027	B	Georgia	94.0%	0.8%	5.2%	Romania	Georgia by 24	North Queensland Stadium, Townsville
4 Oct 2027	C	Fiji	93.6%	0.8%	5.6%	Spain	Fiji by 23	Newcastle Stadium, Newcastle
4 Oct 2027	D	Ireland	99.5%	0.1%	0.4%	Portugal	Ireland by 40	Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney
4 Oct 2027	C	Argentina	99.8%	0.1%	0.2%	Canada	Argentina by 43	Brisbane Stadium, Brisbane
8 Oct 2027	F	Wales	94.9%	0.7%	4.4%	Tonga	Wales by 25	Docklands Stadium, Melbourne
8 Oct 2027	F	England	>99.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%	Zimbabwe	England by 56	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
9 Oct 2027	E	USA	44.9%	2.6%	52.5%	Samoa	Samoa by 1	Perth Stadium, Perth
9 Oct 2027	A	New Zealand	75.9%	2.0%	22.1%	Australia	New Zealand by 11	Stadium Australia, Sydney
9 Oct 2027	E	France	94.4%	0.8%	4.9%	Japan	France by 24	Brisbane Stadium, Brisbane
9 Oct 2027	A	Chile	77.8%	1.8%	20.4%	Hong Kong China	Chile by 12	North Queensland Stadium, Townsville
10 Oct 2027	C	Fiji	98.2%	0.3%	1.5%	Canada	Fiji by 32	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
10 Oct 2027	C	Argentina	98.8%	0.2%	1.0%	Spain	Argentina by 34	Docklands Stadium, Melbourne
10 Oct 2027	B	South Africa	99.3%	0.1%	0.6%	Georgia	South Africa by 37	Brisbane Stadium, Brisbane
10 Oct 2027	D	Ireland	66.7%	2.4%	30.9%	Scotland	Ireland by 7	Perth Stadium, Perth
11 Oct 2027	D	Uruguay	35.6%	2.5%	61.9%	Portugal	Portugal by 5	Newcastle Stadium, Newcastle
11 Oct 2027	B	Italy	97.3%	0.4%	2.3%	Romania	Italy by 29	Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney
15 Oct 2027	A	New Zealand	>99.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%	Hong Kong China	New Zealand by 66	Docklands Stadium, Melbourne
15 Oct 2027	E	Japan	88.7%	1.3%	10.0%	USA	Japan by 19	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
15 Oct 2027	F	Tonga	80.4%	1.8%	17.9%	Zimbabwe	Tonga by 14	North Queensland Stadium, Townsville
16 Oct 2027	C	Argentina	76.6%	2.0%	21.4%	Fiji	Argentina by 11	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
16 Oct 2027	A	Australia	99.8%	<0.1%	0.2%	Chile	Australia by 43	Brisbane Stadium, Brisbane
16 Oct 2027	F	England	87.2%	1.4%	11.4%	Wales	England by 18	Stadium Australia, Sydney
16 Oct 2027	C	Spain	71.4%	2.2%	26.5%	Canada	Spain by 9	North Queensland Stadium, Townsville
17 Oct 2027	B	Italy	62.6%	2.5%	34.9%	Georgia	Italy by 5	Newcastle Stadium, Newcastle
17 Oct 2027	D	Ireland	99.9%	<0.1%	0.1%	Uruguay	Ireland by 45	Docklands Stadium, Melbourne
17 Oct 2027	D	Scotland	98.3%	0.3%	1.4%	Portugal	Scotland by 33	Brisbane Stadium, Brisbane
17 Oct 2027	E	France	99.7%	0.1%	0.2%	Samoa	France by 42	Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney
17 Oct 2027	B	South Africa	>99.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%	Romania	South Africa by 61	Perth Stadium, Perth

How the betting market sees it

OddsJet UK (best price per team across listed bookmakers), quoted 3 Nov 2026, 2:22 PM ET, recorded 3 Nov 2026, 3:20 PM ET. Decimal odds converted to probabilities and normalised over the 21 teams quoted (raw sum 131%). Comparison only: odds are never used as model inputs.

Team	Model	Decimal odds	Implied	Model minus market
South Africa	32.7%	3	25.4%	+7.3 pts
New Zealand	29.9%	4.5	16.9%	+13.0 pts
Ireland	13.1%	8	9.5%	+3.6 pts
France	7.9%	4.33	17.6%	-9.7 pts
Australia	7.0%	9	8.5%	-1.5 pts
England	5.4%	7	10.9%	-5.5 pts
Scotland	2.6%	26	2.9%	-0.3 pts
Argentina	1.4%	17	4.5%	-3.1 pts
Fiji	<0.1%	81	0.9%	-0.9 pts
Wales	<0.1%	101	0.8%	-0.7 pts
Italy	<0.1%	151	0.5%	-0.5 pts
Japan	<0.1%	151	0.5%	-0.5 pts
Georgia	<0.1%	351	0.2%	-0.2 pts
Tonga	<0.1%	501	0.1%	-0.1 pts
Chile	<0.1%	1501	0.1%	-0.1 pts
Spain	<0.1%	1001	0.1%	-0.1 pts
Samoa	<0.1%	251	0.3%	-0.3 pts
USA	<0.1%	1001	0.1%	-0.1 pts
Portugal	<0.1%	1501	0.1%	-0.1 pts
Uruguay	<0.1%	1501	0.1%	-0.1 pts
Canada	<0.1%	not quoted	—	—
Hong Kong China	<0.1%	not quoted	—	—
Zimbabwe	<0.1%	2001	<0.1%	-0.0 pts
Romania	<0.1%	not quoted	—	—

Track record

Before publishing, the same model was run as of the eve of the 2015, 2019 and 2023 tournaments, using only results and rankings available then, with parameters fixed in advance. Across 141 matches the blend had the lowest log loss (0.338, vs 0.344 for our ratings alone and 0.351 for rankings alone), so it is the published version. It did not win everything: a simple World Rugby rankings model scored better on whole-tournament outcomes in 2015 and 2019, and bookmakers gave the 2019 champion (South Africa) a higher chance.

Tournament	Match log loss (model)	Match log loss (WR simple)	Favourite won	Stage Brier (model)	Stage Brier (WR simple)	Champion: model	Champion: WR simple	Champion: bookmaker
2015 (New Zealand)	0.344	0.360	85.4%	0.0595	0.0558	55.9%	67.4%	39.4%
2019 (South Africa)	0.331	0.406	86.7%	0.0575	0.0511	13.7%	13.5%	17.0%
2023 (South Africa)	0.338	0.391	85.1%	0.0595	0.0666	21.1%	23.4%	19.4%

Lower log loss and Brier are better.

Method

Team strength blends two estimates with equal weight: our own ratings, built from every men's international since 2000 (recent matches count more, and teams with few matches are pulled toward average), and World Rugby's official ranking points converted to an expected margin. Match margins are simulated with random variation, then pools are settled with the official bonus-point and tiebreak rules, the best third-placed teams are slotted into the bracket, and knockouts are played out. Australia gets a home advantage of 4.4 points. Results are through 31 Oct 2026; World Rugby rankings of 3 Nov 2026. Inputs are official World Rugby data only.

To confirm

Match points and bonus points for 2027 (taken from the official RWC 2019 Tournament Rules; no 2027 rules document found).
Pool tiebreak order for 2027 (RWC 2019 rules), including our reading of 3-way ties at criterion 1 (wins among the tied teams).
Best-third permutation table (Wikipedia transcription of World Rugby's graphic; matches every rule in the official format article).
Pre-2020 ranking snapshot dates (World Rugby API 'effective' label unreliable; values spot-checked).
Knockout ties decided 50/50 (extra time and kicking competition not modelled).
Not modelled: travel, rest days, squad news and injuries.